Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
