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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not received the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.